ROANOKE, Va. – Since July, we’ve been asked what this winter would be like and while long-range forecasting is difficult and lacks the precision of a day-to-day forecast, Your Local Weather Authority has worked hard to create this forecast of what we will see in the coming months.
Before our snowfall projections, we want to start by explaining a few factors that are influencing this year’s forecast, like La Niña and Siberian snow cover.
One thing to look at closely is the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This year, we are dealing with La Niña conditions, which are described as cooler than average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Perú.
In the Southeastern United States, we usually experience warmer and drier conditions during a La Niña winter. Wetter (or snowier) than usual conditions are expected in the Great Lake states and Pacific Northwest, while it may be cooler than average in the upper Midwest.
Our own research has shown us that 74% of winters during a La Niña year have brought us below-average snowfall; however, that’s not to say we won’t see any snow.