Roanoke, VA – Our updated drought monitor is now released, so let’s take a look at what we’ve seen and what we could see going into next week.
That’s the most recent update. Let’s compare it to last week.
We’ve seen the most rainfall over the past 7 days in the western and easternmost parts of the state, which certainly helped. You can see substantial improvements were made east of I-95 and west of I-77. Central Virginia, however, continues to deal with extreme drought conditions and needs some substantial rainfall to avoid worsening conditions. We saw some slight westward expansion in Southside and the southern Roanoke Valley with extreme drought conditions, which will be a trend to watch next week.
One comment I see ALL. THE. TIME. is along the lines of “Well, if we’re in a drought, then why is it still so green outside?”
The answer to that is pretty straightforward. When many people think of drought, they think of bone-dry conditions, dead grass, and tumbleweeds blowing around. That’s more representative of what you’d see in an arid climate like the southwestern United States. Even in drought, Virginia usually has some more moisture in topsoil and subsoil, which leads to a deceptively green appearance. This is known as a “green drought.” HOWEVER... aquifers and deeper soils remain dry, which increases the stress on plants and crops at the roots.
Now, you’ll notice that Virginia needs generally 9-13 inches of rainfall (depending upon which part of the state you’re in) to eliminate drought conditions over the timeframe of one month. Granted, getting all that rainfall in a short timeframe would lead to substantial flooding instead, which can be just as bad.
We need to hit a sweet spot of gradually chipping away at those numbers. The rainfall over the last 7 days certainly helped, as any bit of rain does, but we still need more. Keep in mind these are general estimates for rainfall, as you may have a bit more or less in your backyard.
Here’s the good news: this unsettled pattern that arrives this weekend could bring some very beneficial rainfall, without a significant flash flood threat. Rainfall coverage Friday is spotty, with Saturday and Sunday a bit more scattered in nature.
On the flip side of that are temperatures next week. We could very well hit 100 towards the middle to end of next week, which would increase the rate of evaporation in the ground, and significantly impact drought conditions. That just makes this weekend even more vital when it comes to getting rainfall.