Harris leads Trump by 10 points in Roanoke College’s latest poll

This is the final poll Roanoke College will release before election day

This combination of photos taken Monday, Oct. 21, 2024, shows Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaking during a town hall in Malvern, Pa., left, and Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump delivering remarks on Hurricane Helene in Swannanoa, N.C.. (AP Photo) (Uncredited, Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

SALEM, Va. – Roanoke College released their final 2024 election poll on November 1 that asked likely Virginian voters multiple questions regarding their opinions on candidates, who they would vote for, if they feel the country is on the right path, among others. Over half of the interviews were conducted over the phone, and 45% were conducted by text to web. 851 people were interviewed between October 25 and October 29. Roanoke College said quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented.

This poll has omitted many of the previous questions the last poll had, such as favorability/approval ratings for Governor Youngkin, running mates Tim Walz and JD Vance, as well as Congress and the Supreme Court.

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“We have fewer questions on this poll because the last one of the election season is always short, shorter than earlier ones. Part of that honestly is because we’re trying to get in and out of the field as quickly as we can, and we really are on some sort of a deadline to finish things up.”

Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.

This poll comes as millions of Americans have already voted early, including many Virginians. If you’re looking for more information on the election, you can check out our comprehensive voting guide here.

Are we moving in the right or wrong direction?

When interviewees were asked if they think the country is moving in the right or wrong direction, 25% said the right direction, and 64% said we were moving in the wrong direction. Interestingly, both responses have seen a decrease in their percentage answered, as now 9% of respondents were unsure.

Approval ratings of political figures

Joe Biden’s approval rating has received a slight bump since August, with 38% approval (up from 35%), and 52% disapproval, which is down 10% from August. This is the lowest we’ve seen President Biden’s disapproval since October 2021, but 9% of respondents said they were mixed this time around.

Favorability of political figures

Please note that, while favorability tends to correlate with approval, they are not the same statistic.

Joe Biden‘s favorability has stayed the same since August, with 37% viewing him favorably. 50% of interviewees view him unfavorably, which is a massive drop from the 61% that was polled back in August. 12% said they had mixed opinions, which is up from only 1% in August’s poll.

Donald Trump’s favorability rating has dropped slightly since August. He is currently at 38% favorability and 54% unfavorability. He is 2 percentage points less favorable than he was in August. Once again, a larger percentage of interviewees responded they were mixed or unsure, with 6% this time, up from only 1% in August.

Kamala Harris‘s favorability was polled for the second time by the college as well. She received a rating of 45% favorability and 46% unfavorability. Like both Biden and Trump, a larger percentage claimed they were mixed or unsure of their opinion on the Vice President (8%, up from 0%). Harris’s favorability is the highest out of any of the figures that were polled this time.

A graph showing the trends of favorability between Biden, Trump, and Harris in Virginia according to the Roanoke College poll. (Copyright 2024 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

Senator Tim Kaine’s favorability is at an all-time low, with 39% viewing him favorably. His unfavorability is also quite low, with only 33%. His opponent, Hung Cao, polled at 28% favorability, which is equivalent to his percentage back in August. His unfavorability has dropped from 47% to 24% as well. Both senatorial candidates have dropped in unfavorability, but have received a huge increase in respondents saying they were mixed or unsure. 23% of respondents were unsure of Kaine, and 31% for Cao, both up from only 1% back in August.

A chart showing the current favorability ratings of political figures in Virginia according to the Roanoke College Poll. (Copyright 2024 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

When asked about why there were such a large number of respondents who had mixed/unsure opinions on different figures, Harry Wilson stated the following:

“I think it’s related to many interviews completed online and that was offered as an option. In phone interviews, we typically don’t offer it but allow the interviewer to code it that way if the respondent says it or seems to hesitate too long before answering.”

Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College

How are respondents planning to vote/have they voted?

Participants were also asked who they would vote for if the election were held today and they had to decide who to vote for right now.

When factoring in third-party candidates, 51% of respondents said they would vote for Kamala Harris, and 41% said they would vote for Donald Trump. This greatly expands the lead she had in August, where she was only three percentage points ahead of the former president.

“Harris has really been able to consolidate Democrats behind her. She’s taking 95% of Democrats, which is up from August... Trump is taking 90% of Republicans, which is good, but is not as good as the 95%. Harris is also doing a little bit better among independents than she was in August.”

Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College

The remaining respondents were delegated to the third-party candidates. Cornel West polled at 2%, Jill Stein polled at 1%, Chase Oliver polled at 2%, and 4% of respondents said another candidate or they were undecided. Please note that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was not included in the poll.

“Third party candidates often get fewer actual votes than their support in polls. That may be true this time or they may be true supporters of those candidates or simply “I can’t vote for either person“ voters. We really don’t know.”

Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College

Roanoke College also asked if people had already voted, as well as how likely they were to vote. An astounding 40% of respondents said they had already voted, while 47% said they would almost certainly vote, and 9% said they would very likely vote.

When asked who they would vote for in the senatorial election, Tim Kaine holds a similar lead over Hung Cao. 51% of respondents said they would vote for Kaine, while 40% said they would vote for Cao. While Kaine is up by 11 points, just like he was in August, both candidates now have more respondents who say they plan to vote for them.

Important Issues

Respondents were also asked what the most important issue is to them in this election, with 43% saying the economy, 12% saying immigration, and 20% saying abortion. Crime received 3%, foreign affairs received 8%, and 12% of respondents said “something else.”

Voters were also conflicted about who would do better on key issues. Trump and Harris are tied on immigration at 48%, while Harris holds a 4-point lead on crime and foreign policy. Trump holds a 3-point lead on the economy, but Harris holds a massive 21-point lead on the issue of abortion.

A chart of how voters view the candidates on key issues according to the Roanoke College poll. (Copyright 2024 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

Crosstabs

The polling data also provided select crosstabs, such as how Democrats, Republicans, and Independent voters answered certain questions. As expected, those who identify as Democrats have higher favorability and approval ratings of Democratic figures, and Republicans have higher favorability and approval ratings of Republican figures.

Independents had split views on the candidates as well. The Democratic figures polled better this time around, with Harris at 37% favorability and Kaine at 35%, with Biden’s favorability one point higher. The favorability of Trump and Cao also dropped significantly, with Trump now at 29% favorability, and Cao at 25%.

Independents also support Harris when asked who they would vote for. 49% of independents said they would vote for Harris, with only 36% for Trump.

A chart of the favorability ratings of candidates from Independent Virginia voters according to the Roanoke College poll. (Copyright 2024 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

“[Harris’s] lead in Virginia is outside of the margin of error. From our polling, [Virginia] appears as less competitive than it was in August.”

Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College

The poll contained over 30 questions, so less significant topics were not covered here. If you’d like all information, as well as the raw polling data, you can visit the Roanoke College website here.


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About the Author
Colton Game headshot

Colton joined the WSLS 10 team as a digital content producer in July 2024, soon after graduating cum laude from Virginia Tech with a B.S. in sociology and a minor in psychology.