Active again! NOAA issues above-average hurricane season forecast for 2022

The organization is expecting 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes

NOAA hurricane season forecast (Copyright 2022 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

Hurricane season begins one week from Wednesday and it’s likely to be another active one, according to NOAA. The organization issued their seasonal outlook Tuesday morning and predicts 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

The active forecast follows suit with Colorado State and NC State’s forecasts that were released earlier this spring. For perspective, the average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is 14, 7 and 3, respectively.

Hurricane forecasts vs. average (Copyright 2022 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

There are a couple of reasons for the active forecast. One is the presence of La Niña, which causes weaker wind shear. Wind shear is one of the bigger inhibiting factors for the development of tropical systems.

Reasons for hurricane forecast - La Niña (Copyright 2022 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

We’re also tracking warmer-than-average waters in the Atlantic basin, which should help tropical storms and hurricanes strengthen this season.

Reasons for hurricane forecast - Ocean temps (Copyright 2022 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

This is expected to be the first season since 2014 without a pre-season storm.

Here’s the list of storm names for the 2022 season. If this list gets exhausted, naming will move to a supplemental list that was first used in 2021.

2022 hurricane season names (Copyright 2022 by WSLS 10 - All rights reserved.)

About the Author:

Justin McKee presents the weather forecast on 10 News Saturday and Sunday mornings from 6 to 8 a.m. He also fills in for other meteorologists during the week.