Wednesday, Thursday to be the “calm before the storm”; Nicole to bring rain, possible storms

Nicole to bring widespread rain and the possibility of a few stronger thunderstorms Veterans Day

ROANOKE, Va. – As of 3 a.m. Wednesday, Nicole is a strong tropical storm moving toward the East Coast of Florida.

This is where it will make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning as either a Tropical Storm or a Category 1 hurricane.

A strong cold front will then shove the storm farther northeast toward our area Veterans Day.

4 a.m. track on Tropical Storm Nicole - 11/9/2022

Timing

Thursday starts dry with clouds increasing. By Thursday night, showers begin advancing from south to north. Some showers will be heavy at times into Friday morning.

Overall timeline for Nicole's impact on southwest, central Virginia

After sunrise Friday, there will be the possibility for a few embedded storms. That potential is greatest in areas along and east of the Blue Ridge Parkway, where temperatures will be well into the 60s - if not the lower 70s.

Thunderstorm fuel associated with Nicole on Veterans Day 2022

Storms could contain locally damaging wind gusts and/or rotation, so make sure you have our app downloaded for any alerts that may be issued.

One last gasp of widespread and heavy rain will push west to east during the evening and nighttime hours Friday before clearing out by Saturday morning. That’s when the threat for localized flooding will be at its highest.

How much rain are we getting?

When all comes to a close Friday, most of the area will end up with around 1 to 3″ of rain.

Additional upslope motion in the wind could lead to locally higher totals along the spine of the Blue Ridge.

Projected rain totals from Nicole

That said, the flood threat will mainly be on a localized (not widespread) scale. Most of the area can take 1-3″ of rain over a 18-24 time frame.

More Immediate Forecast

Prior to the arrival of Nicole’s rain and possible storms, the weather will be nice and quiet.

Wednesday starts out chilly with areas of frost possible.

High temperatures manage to reach the upper 50s and lower 60s under a mostly sunny sky.

Despite increasing clouds Thursday, a southeast breeze will push most of us into the 60s.

2-day zone forecast through Thursday, 11/10/2022

Once Nicole gets shoved east by a cold front, we’ll turn windy at times Saturday. This is then followed by a rush of cold air Sunday through next Tuesday.

Colder air moves in on the back-side of Nicole late Saturday through early next week

Rain chances increase Tuesday - perhaps starting as a light wintry mix early on in the New River Valley. That all comes down to timing. Stay with us for updates.


About the Author:

Meteorologist Chris Michaels is an American Meteorological Society (AMS) Certified Broadcaster, forecasting weather conditions in southwest Virginia on WSLS 10 News from 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. weekdays on Virginia Today.