ROANOKE, Va. – If you’re like the classic duo of Bing Crosby and Danny Kaye, you might be dreaming of a White Christmas.
The last time we had a White Christmas (defined as 1″ of snow on the ground on Christmas Day) was in 2020, and you helped us document such a great memory here.
Just Like the Ones I Used To Know
Year after year, we’re asked about the odds of another one. To be truthful, they don’t happen as often as you might think around here.
In the last 70 years, a White Christmas happened eleven times in the Roanoke Valley.
Most of those were in the 1960s. Since then, we’ve seen one an average of once every decade.
[RELATED: WSLS 10 Weather Authority releases 2023-2024 winter outlook]
Historical odds of a White Christmas historically go up with increased elevation and down with decreased elevation.
Dream vs. Reality in 2023?
As I’m typing out this story, we sit 13 days away from Christmas Day. We really have to look into the crystal ball to get any sense of what will happen, or do we?
At this point in the forecast process, we look at global-scale weather patterns.
One global pattern that is key in winter weather forecasting in the Eastern U.S. is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
The NAO has two different phases.
The negative phase is more favorable for cold air and potential storminess in the Eastern U.S. The positive phase usually results in high pressure in the Eastern U.S., which favors more warmth and less storminess.
Forecast data for the week of December 19 to December 25 shows more of a positive phase, which would lead us to believe that the odds of a White Christmas are low for 2023.
We’re not the only ones thinking that, either.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its 8-14 outlook (as it does every day) on December 11. This takes into account the days leading up to Christmas.
Its outlook - warmer and drier-than-average.
This obviously is not the final say, as we have more than one week of data to review. That data gets more detailed, and so do our forecasts, the closer we get to the holiday weekend.