Booms in Idaho, Utah buck the curve of slowing US growth

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FILE - Rows of homes, are shown in suburban Salt Lake City, on April 13, 2019. Utah is one of two Western states known for rugged landscapes and wide-open spaces that are bucking the trend of sluggish U.S. population growth. The boom there and in Idaho are accompanied by healthy economic expansion, but also concern about strain on infrastructure and soaring housing prices. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)

SALT LAKE CITY – Two Western states known for their rugged landscapes and wide-open spaces are bucking the trend of sluggish U.S. population growth, which dipped to the lowest level since the Great Depression, though different forces are powering the population booms in Utah and Idaho.

In Utah, births largely drove the fastest growth in the country over the past decade. In neighboring Idaho, newcomers from California and other states helped it capture the second spot.

“I don’t ever remember seeing anything like this,” said Bill Rauer, executive officer of the Idaho Building Contractors Association in southwest Idaho, the state’s most populous area. “(Builders) are running at a breakneck pace right now.”

For both states, which have long been lightly populated, the expansion comes with rapid economic growth, sparking concerns about strains on infrastructure, rising housing prices and a sharp increase in the cost of living that could threaten the area’s quality of life in the long term.

As the states tucked between the Rocky Mountains and the West Coast enter the next decade, leaders will have to wrestle with how to keep the growth rolling without letting costs spiral out of control for individual households or straining the natural resources that help draw people to the area.

The majority of Idaho’s growth, about 60%, has been driven by people moving into the state between 2010 to 2019, according to data from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. One in five of those came from California, many of them retirees seeking lower housing prices and some of the most pristine wilderness in the continental U.S.

The biggest growth driver in Utah, by contrast, is new births. As home to The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, a faith that puts a high value on family, Utah has long been among the states with the highest birth rate, largest households and youngest overall population: 31 years old compared to 38 in the U.S. as a whole in 2019.

While the fertility rate has slowed a bit in recent years, natural growth still accounts for about 70% of the state’s boom. “We’re still a lot younger and we still have more kids than most states,” said Mallory Bateman, a senior research analyst at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.