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East Coast threat increasing next week; exact track uncertain

Florence to restrengthen; could threaten East Coast

ROANOKE, Va. – Though any potential threat for a hurricane on the East Coast is about a week away, the threat is increasing. The Friday morning update from the National Hurricane Center shows the storm restrengthening over warmer Atlantic waters by Wednesday of next week. 

Where it goes beyond that point is still up in the air. This is reflected very well in the spaghetti models below. This shows multiple variations of the European forecast model. The farther spread apart these lines are, the more uncertain the forecast is.

The trend, however, is for the storm to either hit or make a close call with the East Coast of the United States.

This is all going to depend on a large area of high pressure over the northern Atlantic. If this high moves faster and to the east, it allows the opportunity for Florence to curve north and away from the coast. If this high moves slower, it will help guide Florence to the coast.

Those of you with interests in the East Coast next week need to be paying attention to the forecast. We're still in somewhat of a 'wait-and-see' mode.

Once we can get the Hurricane Hunters to investigate this storm, the forecast data should paint a clearer picture as to who sees impacts from the storm. They are flying out to Bermuda Friday and will do investigative flights into the storm afterwards.

One thing is clear. With a strengthening hurricane in close proximity to the East Coast, we need to pay close attention to this storm, its behavior and its track.


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