As of Tuesday morning, Dorian is a fairly weak tropical storm moving past the Windward Islands. It continues to make a path toward islands like Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Before we can get there, let's talk about its short-term future.
Tropical systems like to take on the form of a stack of pancakes. If the wind changes with height, that stack becomes disheveled. Therefore, as Dorian moves into an area of wind shear - it may become less organized than it already is.
Secondly, tropical systems like moisture. While it is surrounded by ocean, there is a decent amount of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
So between now and Thursday, it is unlikely that Dorian will strengthen very much. Now, let's talk about some long-term scenarios (Thursday through Labor Day weekend).
After Thursday, we should get to know more about this system's potential impact on the mainland U.S.
The National Hurricane Center track has the center of Dorian threading the needle between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico between Wednesday and Thursday. This would lead to minimal land interaction and a better chance at this storm surviving and advancing toward the Bahamas and Florida this weekend.
If however, the center of the storm were to interact with the Dominican Republic's 10,000-foot mountains, the storm would get torn to shreds and not survive long after that.
Provided that this storm moves in between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, its moisture may make it up to us to give us a few passing showers Sunday and Labor Day.
This will not be a case like Florence or Michael of last year, because the storm itself will be so far to our south by Labor Day weekend.
Still, we'll continue to keep a close eye on this for our weather and for any holiday weekend vacation plans you may have along the East Coast.